I’ve had another think about the numbers in the roulette betting system that I outlined recently. The calculations I made in that post were done on the fly, so there is a little refining to be done. The new numbers are just as good though, just slightly different.
Just to recap, the system says that you pick a number and then bet 1 unit (say $1) on that number for fifteen spins of the wheel. Should your number not come up during those fifteen spins, then you increase your bet to $2 for the next 5 spins. If your number still hasn’t come up then you finish the session with a loss of $25.
If your number comes up anywhere within the first fifteen spins, you will be paid $35. You will have bet anywhere from $1 to $15, so the best case profit would be $34 and the worst case profit would be $20. If your number comes up within the last 5 spins then you will be paid $70, and you will have bet anywhere (in total) from $17 to $25, for a minimum profit of $45 and a maximum profit of $53.
If your number does come up within the twenty spins in total that you bet on, it is three times more likely to be in the first fifteen than in the last five spins. So to work out an average return we need to fiddle with the figures a bit.
The average for the first spiins is $20 + $34 = $54 / 2 = $27 and for the second set it’s $45 + $53 = $98 / 2 = $49. To get an average across these numbers we need to multiply the first average by 3 and add the second average, then divide by 4. ($27 x 3 = $81) + $49 = $130 / 4 = $32.50.
That gives us an average win of $32.50 for when our number does hit, and a loss of $25 for when our number doesn’t hit.
Given that we are betting a 37 to 1 shot 20 times, we are going to say we are betting a 20/17 shot.
This is where my numbers fall down, and every betting theorist tells me that the wheel has no memory and each spin is random and so on. Well, if that was enough to sway me I wouldn’t be looking for a system, would I?
Another way for me to look at this is that I am covering over half the wheel with each series, and so my odds are true. That might be something for me to look at later one.
So, according to the Mad Roulette Money System, if I run my series of bets 37 times (the number of numbers on the wheel plus zero) I can expect to win an average of $32.50 each of twenty times, and lose $25 each of 17 times. Win $32.50 avg. x 20 = $650 and lose $25 x 17 = $425 for a profit of $225.
Nice. I like it.
A couple of caveats.
Right. First, this system is untested and the author is unstable; use it at your own risk. Second, playing on European Roulette is better, that game has better odds than American Roulette.
In the screenshot above, I am playing the number 5 on the Bovada free play roulette game. That game starts you off with $1000, and I bet $1 on my chosen number, 5. Number 5 hit on the second spin for a profit after losses of $33, so the balance reflects as $1033. I had expected that the sequence would last a bit longer and I would have more numbers to show here, but that’s how it worked out.
One other thing. Playing $1 bets on Roulette can be incredibly boring.
So for my next test run, I upped the betting unit to $5. Starting again with $1,000 and again on the Bovada Casino free play roulette game, betting the number 5. The first series was a bust. Down $125. The second series went to bet sixteen. Which was a double bet, $10. The screenshot below says it all.
So a net profit of $140 after two sessions with a starting bankroll of $1,000. I don’t know about you but I find this interesting.